A recent simulation study suggests that poker pros who register late for tournaments can significantly outperform their early-registering counterparts, potentially boosting their expected ROI by nearly double. The research, shared by Reddit user and poker theorist “Tombos21,” used a computer model to explore the effects of registration timing on tournament profitability.
Late Registration vs. Early Registration
In Tombos21’s simulation, players were divided into three groups: early-registering pros, late-registering pros, and recreational players. Across 1 million simulated tournaments, the results were striking:
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Early-registering pros: +15.2% ROI
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Late-registering pros: +27.9% ROI
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Recreational players: -18.4% ROI
According to the theorist, registering late provides a substantial “ICM boost,” as smaller fields near the money increase the relative equity of starting stacks. This advantage can outweigh the potential early-game exploitation opportunities that occur when weaker players are plentiful at the tables.
Why Late Registration Works
The study aligns with previous research from Kenny Hallaert (2019) and Barry Carter, who demonstrated that late registration allows players to gain equity from eliminated opponents without taking early risks. For non-professionals, shorter starting stacks may even reduce skill disadvantages, turning otherwise losing players into breakeven or modestly profitable participants.
Limitations of the Simulation
Tombos21 cautioned that the model is simplified. It assigned pros a fixed 52-48 edge over recreational players and had them go all-in randomly in matchups—a method he jokingly called a “caveman MTT simulation.” Adjusting the skill edge to 60-40 made early registration nearly as profitable as late registration.
Additional caveats include:
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If all winning players register late, the field softens early, reducing the advantage of late entry.
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Skill advantage over recreational players varies by stack depth and tournament stage.
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Real-life dynamics, such as multi-entry events and ICM shifts near the bubble, aren’t fully captured.
Implications for Players and Operators
For winning players, late registration remains a well-known tactic, though it’s not universally optimal. Early registration may still be preferred if a player’s skill edge is substantial or if they value longer playtime. For recreational players, early registration often provides more entertainment.
For tournament operators, late registration creates a tension between increasing entries and preserving a balanced field. The World Series of Poker allows extremely late entries in some events, while the World Poker Tour enforces earlier cutoffs—both approaches continue to succeed.
Takeaway
Tombos21’s simulation reinforces a familiar concept: late registration can provide a meaningful edge in poker tournaments, especially for pros. However, the optimal timing depends on skill, field composition, and personal goals. For organizers, balancing late-registration policies remains a nuanced challenge that affects both profitability and player experience.
